Project 1
Detecting the impact of populations, species, and communities on the environment
While ecosystem engineers like beavers and gopher tortoises dramatically alter landscapes, the broader ecological impacts of individual organisms on their environments remain poorly understood. Most studies focus on conspicuous habitat modifiers, yet the cumulative effects of species at population, community, or species levels—and whether these effects can be detected at larger scales—remain unexplored. Recent advances in causal inference methods, such as convergent cross mapping (CCM), offer new tools to quantify these interactions. Here, we apply CCM to time-series data of spectral environmental proxies (e.g., vegetation structure, soil moisture) and bird abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey and GBIF. We test whether causal signals between avian populations and environmental change emerge at distinct organizational levels (individual species, populations, or communities). Our approach addresses a critical gap: analogous to biodiversity studies where species richness may remain stable despite individual species declines, we hypothesize that counteracting environmental modifications by different bird populations or species could mask net ecological effects. By analyzing these dynamics, we aim to clarify how individual organisms scale to influence ecosystems and whether their impacts are detectable beyond localized interactions.