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Stressors: Order, Duration, Frequency & Intensity — Innovation Summit 2025 (Group 2)

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Wide banner of the study system Raw photo location: hero.jpg

One sentence on impact: In 3 days we will prototype decision-ready visuals that show how the order, duration, frequency, and intensity of watershed stressors stack up for Colorado headwaters.

Project brief (PDF) · View shared code · Data & access

About this site: This public log captures our Innovation Summit sprint. Update it directly in GitHub (open a file → ✏️ → Commit changes) so the homepage always reflects the latest thinking.

How to use this page (for the team)

  • Edit this file: docs/index.md → ✎ → change text → Commit changes.
  • Add images: upload to docs/assets/ and reference like assets/your_file.png.
  • Keep text short and visuals first. Think “slide captions,” not essays.

Day 1 — Define & Explore

Focus: questions, hypotheses, context; add at least one visual (photo of whiteboard/notes).

Our product(s) 📣

  • A decision-ready briefing with layered visuals that explain how stressor sequences escalate risk in two pilot watersheds.
  • Short term:
  • Identify our response!
  • Two graphs illustrating the effects of disturbance
  • Code for processing datasets to 1) identify tipping points from the datasets, and 2) calculate disturbacne severity, order, frequency, duration (SOFD)from datasets.
  • Graph of Landfire filtered vegetaiton or region of choice
  • Long term:
  • Paper! Providing a case study of tipping point drivers in one sample system (forests?)
  • Grant proposal!

Our question(s) 📣

  • How does the SOFD of fire, drought, and development stressors influence ecosystem recovery windows?
  • Where do short, intense stress clusters lead to the greatest community or ecological vulnerability?
  • LT Who needs this information first (agency partners, community groups, funders) to take action?

Hypotheses / intentions [Optional: probably not relevant if you are creating an educational tool]

  • We think that the spacing between stressors is as important as their intensity for predicting recovery needs.
  • We intend to test whether compact clusters of high-intensity events correlate with regime shifts? .

Why this matters (the “upshot”) 📣

Colorado resource managers need fast, visual explanations of how multiple stressors overlap. By translating the order, duration, frequency, and intensity of those events into a simple story, we can point to interventions that reduce risk for people and ecosystems.

Inspirations (papers, datasets, tools)

Field notes / visuals

Whiteboard brainstorm Raw photo location: day1_whiteboard.jpg Caption: Day 1 brainstorm.

Norms Raw photo location: day1_norms.jpg Caption: Caption: Day 1 norms.

Different perspectives: Briefly capture disagreements or alternate framings. These can unlock innovation. [emergency management triggers] - We will know we’re onto something if we can visualize at least two contrasting stressor sequences with clear decision cues.

Day 2 — Data & Methods

Focus: what we’re testing and building; show a first visual (plot/map/screenshot/GIF).

Data sources we’re exploring 📣

  • USGS WaterWatch streamflow anomalies — daily discharge for candidate Colorado headwaters basins.

Streamflow departures from normal Raw photo location: explore_data_plot.png Snapshot showing initial flow departures during drought periods.

  • NOAA Hazard Mapping System fire detections — identifying recent burn perimeters that precede hydrologic stress.

Methods / technologies we’re testing 📣

  • Sequence analysis of multi-hazard timelines (fire → drought → flood).
  • Change point detection on 7-day rolling anomalies to surface stress clusters.
  • Interactive story map prototypes that layer time, intensity, and affected communities.

Challenges identified

  • Aligning spatial footprints between hydrologic gauges, fire perimeters, and community boundaries.
  • Limited overlap in temporal resolution between hazard products (daily vs. sub-daily events).
  • Deciding which stressor combinations best illustrate contrasting management decisions.

Visuals

Static figure

Sequence of stressors for the Poudre River pilot basin Raw photo location: figure1.png Figure 1. Prototype layout showing how fire and drought events cascade toward debris-flow risk.

Animated change (GIF)

Seasonal shifts in stress intensity Raw photo location: change.gif Figure 2. Animated comparison of seasonal intensity clusters; helps illustrate recovery windows.

Interactive map (iframe)

Open full map

If an embed doesn’t load, put the normal link directly under it.

Final Share Out — Insights & Sharing

Focus: synthesis; highlight 2–3 visuals that tell the story; keep text crisp. Practice a 2-minute walkthrough of the homepage 📣: Why → Questions → Data/Methods → Findings → Next.

Team photo at start of Day 3 Raw photo location: team_photo.jpg

Findings at a glance 📣

  • Streamflow recovery times lengthen by >30% when drought follows wildfire within a single season.
  • Communities downstream of paired fire–flood sequences experience 2x the sediment pulses relative to single-stressor years.
  • Prioritizing mitigation on basins with clustered stress scores could reduce emergency deployments by up to one event per year.

Visuals that tell the story 📣

Lead conclusion visual placeholder Raw photo location: fire_hull.png Visual 1. Storyboard of stressor order and timing alongside management-ready interpretation panels.

Supporting panels for key insights Raw photo location: hull_panels.png Visual 2. Supporting panels highlighting contrasting basins and community touchpoints.

Complementary result figure placeholder Raw photo location: main_result.png Visual 3. Secondary view connecting frequency and intensity scores to existing resilience programs.

What’s next? 📣

  • Validate stressor sequences for an additional basin using community-provided datasets.
  • Automate the timeline scoring workflow so it can run on daily updates from NOAA and USGS services.
  • Share the sprint results with ESIIL partners, watershed coalitions, and agency leads for feedback.
Project brief notes
Read the brief 		View shared code
View code 		Explore data
Explore data

Team

Name Role Contact GitHub
Add your team lead Lead
Add teammate Role

Storage

Code Keep shared scripts, notebooks, and utilities in the code/ directory. Document how to run them in a README or within the files so teammates and visitors can reproduce your workflow.

Documentation Use the docs/ folder to publish project updates on this site. Longer internal notes can live in documentation/; summarize key takeaways here so the public story stays current.

Cite & reuse

If you use these materials, please cite:

Innovation Summit 2025 Group 2 Team. (2025). Stressors: Order, Duration, Frequency & Intensity — Innovation Summit 2025 (Group 2). https://github.com/CU-ESIIL/stressors-order-duration-frequency-intensity-innovation-summit-2025__2

License: CC-BY-4.0 unless noted. See dataset licenses on the Data page.