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Scaling Collapse

Scaling collapse is one of the clearest ways to test whether many different fires share a common underlying growth process.

The basic idea

If fires are realizations of the same generative process, then after appropriate normalization their trajectories should partially overlap during the same growth regime.

For example:

  • normalize time by fire duration
  • normalize perimeter by a characteristic perimeter scale

Then compare the resulting curves across many events.

What success would look like

A strong result would show:

  • scatter during early ignition
  • overlap during a middle expansion interval
  • divergence again during late-stage constraint

That pattern would support the regime-specific scaling hypothesis.

Why this matters here

Scaling collapse does more than estimate an exponent. It asks whether the same process is visible across many fires despite differences in duration, size, and context.