Developmental wildfire morphology

Fire VASE

Explain how fires develop—not only how they end.

Fire VASE turns observed growth histories into standardized morphology. It makes the timing, concentration, persistence, and recurrence of growth a common response for mechanistic study; weather is the first external explanatory layer.

Read the Argument Inspect the Evidence Open the Notebook

278,569 FIRED events represented as developmental histories

10,246 consecutive histories in the corrected shape-only analysis

237,235 events in the manuscript's first centroid-weather projection

Where to start

Follow the claim from representation to explanation

This site is the manuscript-support hub for collaborators, reviewers, and readers. Begin with the developmental argument, then inspect the corrected evidence, data boundary, and complete reproduction path. The sequence matters: construct the observed history first; test possible explanations second.

Data Lake

Get the research package

Download, verify, or rebuild the FIRED/gridMET caches, Parquet tables, developmental morphology products, schemas, and manuscript artifacts.

Narrative

Read the scientific argument

See why developmental pathways are the primary response, how weather enters as an external layer, and where the current inference stops.

Evidence

Test what survives correction

Inspect the shape-only analysis, observation-depth and null tests, weak weather associations, state models, and explicit claim boundaries.

Pipeline

Run the full workflow

Move from repository setup through data-lake verification, analysis regeneration, figure rendering, and final reproducibility checks.

Figures

Rebuild the manuscript visuals

Use the numbered scripts in manuscript_figures/ to reproduce every main figure and the validation supplement.

Methods

Follow the scientific chain

Trace source fire records through ordered growth, VASE construction, developmental morphology, external attribution, and validation.

Core resources

Handoff links

• Data lake: CyVerse Fire_Vase folder
• Source code: CU-ESIIL/fire_vase
• Runnable notebook: reproduce_fire_vase_pipeline.ipynb
• Script summaries: Code Map
• Reusable VASE implementation: CU-ESIIL/cubedynamics

Manuscript

Source documents

The manuscript and companion SI establish the narrative being developed here. The SI remains a working draft with unresolved insertion markers; use the corrected v2 page for validated numerical claims.

Manuscript PDF Supplementary draft Narrative guide Corrected v2 manuscript AI transparency Expanded AI report